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2012/35 : Teacher quality policy when supply matters

Recent proposals would strengthen the dependence of teacher pay and retention on performance, in order to attract those who will be effective teachers and repel those who will not. I model the teacher labor market, incorporating dynamic self-selection, noisy performance measurement, and Bayesian learning. Simulations indicate that labor market interactions are important to the evaluation of alternative teacher contracts. Typical bonus policies have very small effects on selection. Firing policies can have larger effects, if accompanied by substantial salary increases. However, misalignment between productivity and measured performance nearly eliminates the benefits while preserving most of the costs.

2012/34 : Language use in education and primary schooling attainment: evidence from a natural experiment in Ethiopia

The extensive use of foreign languages in schooling might have an important role to play in the poor educational outcomes observed on the African continent. Exploiting the language policy change of 1994 in Ethiopia as a natural experiment, we estimate the effects of provision of mother tongue instruction on the largest ethnic group in the country. Our results suggest that provision of mother tongue education led to an increase of 0.75 to 1 year of primary schooling in the aected cohort. Moreover the entire increase in the years of schooling can be attributed to the intensive margin of education. The language policy change, conditional on enrolment, increased the percentage of people completing 6 years or more of schooling by 31%. Applying our findings to a set of African countries shows that even after accounting for the costs of provision, introduction of mother tongue instruction imply potentially large benefits and increases the percentage of population completing primary schooling by as much as 15% points. These finding have important policy implications at a time when surging enrolment rates and already stretched educational budgets in the African continent imply need for solutions which can increase the quality of education without requiring huge capital or infrastructural outlays.

2012/30 : Evaluating a bilingual education program in Spain: the impact beyond foreign language learning

We evaluate a program that introduced bilingual education in English and Spanish in primary education in some public schools of the Madrid region in 2004. Under this program students not only study English as a foreign language but also some subjects (at least Science, History and Geography) are taught in English. Spanish and Mathematics are taught only in Spanish. The first class receiving full treatment finished Primary education in June 2010 and they took the standardized test for all 6th grade students in Madrid on the skills considered \indispensable” at that age. This test is our measure of the outcome of primary education to evaluate the program. We have to face a double self-selection problem. One is caused by schools who decide to apply for the program, and a second one caused by students when choosing school. We take several routes to control for these selection problems. The main route to control for self- selected schools is to take advantage of the test being conducted in the same schools before and after the program was implemented in 6th grade. To control for students self-selection we combine the use of several observable characteristics (like parents’ education and occupation) with the fact that most students were already enrolled at the different schools before the program was announced. Our results indicate that there is a clear negative effect on learning the subject taught in English for children whose parents have less than upper secondary education, and no clear effect for anyone on mathematical and reading skills, which were taught in Spanish.

2012/26 : The effect of within-group inequality in a conflict against a unitary threat

A group of agents must defend their individual income from an external threat by pooling their efforts against it. The winner of this confrontation is determined by a contest success function where members’ efforts may display different degrees of complementarity. Individual effort is costly and follows a convex isoelastic function. We investigate how the success of the group in the conflict and its members’ utilities vary with the degree of within-group inequality. We show that there is a natural relationship between the group’s probability of victory and the Atkinson index of inequality. If members’ efforts are complementary or the cost function convex enough, more egalitarianism within the group increases the likelihood of victory against the external threat. The opposite holds when members’ efforts are substitutes and the cost linear enough. Finally, we obtain conditions under which richer members of the group are willing to make transfers to poorer members in order to enhance their final payoff.

2012/21 : Trends in shotgun marriages: the pill, the will or the cost?

This paper examines the evolution of out-of-wedlock conceptions and births over the last four decades. Increases in conception outside of marriage only partially account for increases in the illegitimacy rate: controlling for age at pregnancy, being born one year later increases the probability of being single at first conception by 0.9 percentage points, while the probability of being single at first birth rises by 0.5 additional percentage points. The incidence of shotgun (post- conception) marriage among those conceiving out of wedlock decreased sharply, but the rate is not affected by the level of planning of the pregnancy nor is driven by non-users of modern contraception. However, women in marriage markets (defined by race, religion, and age) with high modern contraceptive use and who conceive outside marriage are less likely to give birth out of wedlock. The trend over time is significantly steeper when the level of modern contraceptive use in the woman’s market is considered, suggesting that the spread of the pill contributed to reduce the rate of increase of out-of-wedlock motherhood.

2012/16 : The contribution of the disabled to the attainment of the Europe 2020 strategy headline targets

In 2009 the European Council published its Europe 2020 Strategy in which it fixed a number of social, educational and economic targets to be achieved by 2020. However, given the current economic crisis, the majority of European countries are struggling to attain these goals. In this framework, this study seeks to quantify the potential contribution of one of the most disadvantaged groups, Europe’s disabled, to the attainment of the Europe 2020 Strategy targets via the monitoring of a number of indicators. The impact of changes in the situation of the disabled is simulated using micro data drawn from the 2009 European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions. Our results show that improving the socioeconomic situation of the disabled could be crucial for attaining the Europe 2020 targets. However, future policy designs at the national level will need to take into account the actual definition of disability that is employed, the heterogeneity of circumstances to be found within such a definition, and the gap between the situation of the disabled and non disabled populations.