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2020/06: Modeling the U.S. firearms market: the effects of civilian stocks, crime, legislation, and armed conflict

This study represents an attempt to understand the U.S. firearms market – the largest in the world – in economic terms. A model of the underlying interplay of legal firearms supply and demand is a prerequisite for reliably evaluating the effectiveness of pertinent existing state and federal firearms policies, and to amend them as necessary. The stakes are high: compared to other nation-states, per capita firearms-related harm in the United States (including suicides and homicides) is exceptionally high and, within constitutional strictures, state and federal firearms policymakers increasingly view it as a major and pressing society-wide problem. Virtually all firearms in the U.S. are initially manufactured and sold legally. Solving a simultaneous equation model using the instrumental variable of natural disasters and employing a unique dataset of U.S. firearms prices and quantities, this paper models – we believe for the first time in the literature – the U.S. market supply of, and demand for, firearms. Encouragingly, we find that this market operates as any other would be expected to, with the notable exception that lagged nonmilitary firearms stocks generate new market demand in a positive feedback loop. We test as predictors of market performance federal firearms legislation as instances of policy, as well as of extraterritorial armed conflict, firearms industry concentration, crime, and technology gaps between U.S. and imported firearms. Except for the time-limited Federal Assault Weapons Ban (1994-2004), we find (restrictive) firearms legislation not to influence sales. We also find that acute external violent conflict and certain levels of violent crime, including homicides and mass shootings, drive up unit sales, and that higher industry concentrations in certain submarkets boost quantity supplied, suggesting economies of scale. Taken together, this study’s findings may provide some empirical support for firearms stock reduction programs to reduce the total volumes of civilian arms.

Webinar: Key European Green Deal against coronavirus: recommendations from the German Goverment’s Comission of experts “Energy of the future”

ONLINE – 11.00h

IEB’s Report of activities 2020

IEB Report 1/2020: Cities, Taxation and Climate Change

What we today understand as being a climate emergency represents a threat to the well-being of people around the world. According to the preeminent study by Mark Huber and Reto Knutti (2011), it is estimated that at least three-quarters of the climate change experienced over the past 60 years is due to human activity. Paradoxically, the actions that need to be taken to stop climate change run into a whole series of obstacles, including the problem of the ‘free-rider’ (“Why should I change my consumer habits if everyone else is changing theirs and I can reap the benefits just the same?”) and the short-sightedness of agents (households, firms and regulators) that sees them taking quite inappropriate decisions given that their longterm impact on the climate is clearly detrimental.

2020/04: Does the internet change attitudes towards immigrants? Evidence from Spain

In this paper, I empirically evaluate the effect of exposure to the Internet on Spanish attitudes towards immigrants. Exploiting a confidential, innovative survey dataset, I am able to identify a relationship between Internet access and attitudes towards immigrants at the micro (municipal) level. I address the endogeneity of Internet availability by looking at pre-existing voice telecommunication characteristics and using outcome variables before and after the arrival of the Internet. Results show that Internet availability between 2008 and 2012 is associated with a better knowledge of (national) immigration dynamics and that it leads to an overall improvement in attitudes towards immigrants. This result is particularly strong among young and urban individuals. Additionally, I find that access to the Internet reduces political support for the Partido Popular, Spain’s traditional right-wing party.

Seminar: Jordi Planelles (IEB-UB & Universitat París-Saclay) – “Public Policies and R&D Spillovers in a Network of Green Technological Proximity” (ONLINE)

12.00h – ONLINE