June 15-16, 2025

This paper estimates the causal effects of extreme temperatures and a related adaptation policy on workplace accidents in Spain, combining administrative records on occupational accidents with high-resolution weather data. Both cold and heat raise the incidence of work accidents, though with different magnitudes: ice days (maximum temperatures<0◦C) increase workplace accidents by 14%, while hot days (35-40◦C) raise them by 4.7%, relative to days in the 15-20◦C range. Cold disproportionately affects women, older workers, permanent employees, and indoor or commuting workers, whereas heat poses greater risks for men, temporary workers, immigrants, and outdoor labourers. To examine the role of adaptation policy, we exploit a 2015 reform of Spain’s national heat alert system, which replaced purely climate-based temperature thresholds with criteria incorporating epidemiological evidence. Difference-indifferences and event-study estimates indicate that the reform reduced workplace accidents by 6.6%, with larger effects for temporary workers (9.2%) and for temperature-related injuries (16.4%). Our findings highlight the importance of targeted climate-adaptation policies in reducing occupational risks.

December 2, 2025 – 14.30h – Room 1038

November 18, 2025 – 14.30h – Room 1038