We exploit the sharp escalation in community-based ICE enforcement following the January 2025 inauguration to estimate the causal effect of immigration enforcement on consumer spending. Using Synthetic Difference-in-Differences with cross-state variation in surge intensity as the identifying variation, we find that states experiencing the largest enforcement surges saw aggregate card spending decline by 1.7 percentage points relative to their SDiD counterfactual, an effect robust to covariate adjustment, alternative shock windows, and pre-tariff truncation. Null estimates for non-in-person spending rule out a broad regional demand shock, while null estimates for jail-based arrests (enforcement invisible to surrounding communities) isolate enforcement visibility as the operative mechanism. Sector-level estimates reveal two empirically distinct channels: in states with Democratic governors, aggregate spending fell by −4.1 pp (p < 0.01), driven by large declines in Accommodation and Food Services (−2.3 pp) and Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (−7.3 pp), consistent with behavioral withdrawal from public commercial life in jurisdictions where community enforcement was most visible. In Trump-voting states, Home Improvement Centers and Transportation and Warehousing spending fell by −3.8 pp (p < 0.1) and −3.0 pp (p < 0.01) respectively, consistent with labor supply disruption among undocumented workers in construction and logistics. Our results indicate that the economic costs of enforcement extend well beyond the directly targeted population and depend critically on whether enforcement is visible to the surrounding community — not merely on its scale.

March 17, 2026 – 14.30h – Room 1012

This paper examines the impact of a 22% minimum wage increase in Spain on January 2019 on intimate partner violence using a doubly robust difference-in-differences strategy with inverse probability weighting and the nationally representative Survey of Violence Against Women. We find no effect of the reform on physical or sexual violence. Furthermore, treated women—those with a high predicted probability of working at minimum-wage jobs—experienced a 42% increase in psychological violence. Labor-market analysis of survey respondents reveals that the reform led to a substitution away from female employment towards her partner’s employment, reducing women’s bargaining power within the household. For women whose partner is five years older, the increase in violence is not accompanied with lower female labor-market engagement, providing evidence of alternative mechanisms, such as disrupted gender roles, or instrumental violence. These findings highlight unintended consequences of wage policy and highlight the need for complementary policies and services addressing the dangers of gender-based and domestic violence.

We estimate the impact of an exogenous increase in income on the prevalence and counts of intimate partner violence (IPV). We exploit time and family-size variation in the earned income tax credit (EITC) by comparing victimization of women with one child or more with that of women with no children before and after the 1993 Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act. Expansion of the credit reduces both reports of physical or sexual assaults and counts of physical or sexual assaults per 100 women surveyed; the effects were strongest for groups more likely to experience IPV and be eligible for the EITC: unmarried women and unmarried Black women. If increased income is the only channel by which the EITC decreases IPV, an additional $1,000 of after-tax income decreases physical or sexual violence toward unmarried low-educated women by 9.73 percent.

The chapter reviews the economic literature on intimate partner violence (IPV), a widespread human rights violation affecting nearly one in three women globally and generating significant societal costs. It focuses on the relationship between various dimensions of female empowerment and IPV. The chapter begins by outlining key theoretical frameworks—including household bargaining, instrumental violence, male backlash, and exposure theories—as well as the main data sources used to study IPV. It then reviews empirical evidence on how factors shaping female empowerment at the individual, relationship, community, and societal levels influence IPV outcomes. Central themes include labor market dynamics, education, income shocks, family formation, legal frameworks, institutional access, and gender norms. The chapter also considers how these factors interact across levels and discusses additional drivers of IPV not directly linked to female empowerment. The goal is to provide an overview of causal evidence from the economic literature on IPV while emphasizing its complexity and the importance of a context-specific, intersectional approach to both its analysis and prevention

November 25, 2025 – 14.30h – Room 1038