2006/07: (When) are intergovernmental transfers used to bail out regional governments? Evidence from Spain 1986-2001
This paper analyses the main determinants of a central government’s decision to use grants to bail out regional governments (i.e., the determinants of additional grants assigned by a central government to regions due to an increase in their issue of debt). The estimated grant equation is derived from a model of a federation, based on Goodspeed (2002), where regions are Stakelberg leaders and the central government’s objective is to maximize a weighted sum of the welfare of the representative consumers from all the regions. The specified equation is estimated separately with a panel data set of discretionary and non-discretionary grants for 15 Spanish regions during the period 1986-2001, using the within and the GMM estimators (Arellano and Bond, 1991), respectively. The results show that the Spanish central government uses grants to partially bailout regions. Such fiscal rescue operations are more intense when: i) the region is responsible for providing health care; ii) debt limits exist (and they have not been properly designed); iii) regional voters are relatively indifferent between the incumbent and the challenger (i.e., there is a high proportion of swing voters).
2005/05: Does decentralization improve the efficiency in the allocation of public investment? Evidence from Spain
The well-known “Decentralization Theorem” (Oates, 1972) establishes the superiority of decentralized public provision over the centralized case, which is not so sensitive to the diversity of expenditure needs among territories. We test this hypothesis using a unique Spanish database that provides information on road and educational infrastructure investment and capital stocks by region both before and after the decentralization of such responsibilities. We find that investment in both categories is much more sensitive to regional output and to infrastructure users and costs when sub-central governments have the responsibility over such services.
2005/04: On the scope of agglomeration economies: Evidence from Catalan zip codes
This paper aims at studying the scope of agglomerations economies empirically. In particular, two issues are explored. First, the industrial scope of agglomeration economies is analysed, by comparing the effects arising from co-localization of same industry firms (localization economies) to the benefits derived from large and diversified economic environments (urbanization/Jacobs diversity effects). Second, the geographic scope of these external effects is studied. These issues are addressed by studying the effects of local industrial characteristics on the one number of births of new establishments in the subsequent period. A theoretical framework is used to interpret regression results in terms of scale effects (productivity shifters). Econometric estimations are carried out, separately, for seven industries for Catalonia, which is a Spanish region, using 1997-2000 data. Evidence of localization, urbanization and diversity effects has been found. Agglomeration economies seem to work at a very local level.
2005/03: Expenditure spillovers and fiscal interactions: Empirical evidence from local governments in Spain
The paper presents a framework for measuring spillovers resulting from local expenditure policies. We identify and test for two different types of expenditure spillovers: (i) “benefit spillovers”, arising from the provision of local public goods, and (ii) “crowding spillovers”, arising from the crowding of facilities by residents in neighboring jurisdictions. Benefit spillovers are accounted for by assuming that the representative resident enjoys the consumption of a local public good in both his own community and in those surrounding it. Crowding spillovers are included by considering that a locality’s consumption level is influenced by the population living in the surrounding localities. We estimate a reaction function, with interactions between local governments occurring not only between expenditure levels, but also between neighbors’ populations and expenditures. The equation is estimated using data on more than 2,500 Spanish local governments for the year 1999. The results show that both types of spillovers are relevant.
2005/02: The effects of party competition on budget outcomes: Empirical evidence from local governments in Spain
This paper investigates the link between local budget outcomes and the intensity of party competition, measured as the margin of victory obtained by the incumbent in the previous local election (i.e. the difference between the vote share and 50%). Two competing hypotheses are tested in the paper. On the one hand, the Leviathan government hypothesis suggests that the lower the intensity of party competition is, the greater is the increase in the size of the local public sector, irrespective of the ideology of the party in power. On the other hand, the Partisan government hypothesis suggests that the incumbent will find it easier to advance its platform when intensity of competition is low (i.e., parties on the left/right will increase/decrease the size of the local public sector when the intensity of the challenge from the opposition is low). These hypotheses are tested with information on spending, own revenues and deficit for more than 500 Spanish local governments over 8 years (1992-1999), and information on the results of two local electoral contests (1991 and 1995). The evidence favors the Partisan hypothesis over the Leviathan one.
2004/05: Yardstick competition and the political costs of raising taxes: An empirical analysis of Spanish municipalities
We test the ‘yardstick competition’ hypothesis by looking at the effects of property tax increases both in the locality and in other comparable jurisdictions on the incumbents’ vote. In order to obtain unbiased estimates of the effects of taxes on voting, we account for national political shocks, ideological preferences of the citizenship and government traits, and we estimate the vote equation using instrumental variables. We also allow various traits of the government (ideology, coalition government, and first term government) to mediate the effects of taxes on voting. The vote equation was estimated using a large database containing nearly 3,000 Spanish municipalities and analysing three local elections (1995, 1999 and 2003). The results suggest that property tax increases, both at municipality and neighbourhood level, have a non-negligible impact on incumbent votes, and that this impact is especially high when: the government is right-wing, is a coalition, and is not in its first term.